Enhancing drought trend analysis in northeastern Algeria with integrated classification frequencies for deeper insights

Abstract

As a widespread environmental phenomenon, drought exerts significant adverse effects on agricultural productivity and environmental stability. Thorough drought assessment is essential for effective water resource management and monitoring strategies. Traditionally, drought is analyzed temporally and spatially without accounting for trend evolution, though trend studies have gained traction recently. This research addresses this gap by examining trend shifts, including frequency variations of drought classifications and their intensities, using a hybrid Frequency Innovative Trends and Statistics Analysis (FITA) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) approach. The study applies 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI12), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI12) across 10 stations in northeastern Algeria 1975–2021. Findings reveal that FITA-ITA enhances drought trend evaluation by offering a detailed microscale analysis of meteorological and hydrological patterns beyond simple increases or decreases. For instance, El Kalla shows a 100% increasing SPI12 trend (ITA slope 1.160), while Khenchela exhibits a 100% decreasing SPI12 trend (ITA slope − 0.846). At Medjaz Amar, SDI12 increases 100% (ITA slope 0.797) despite an 82.61% decreasing RDI12 (ITA slope − 1.294), reflecting streamflow gains amid agricultural droughts. These trends signal heightened risks to groundwater, desertification, and aquatic ecosystems, emphasizing the need for adaptive measures like rainwater harvesting and early warning systems to strengthen resilience in this semi-arid Mediterranean region.